Skype, Silver Lake, and fragile ecosystems

It looks like some evil things were done. Well, not that evil, but maybe some people who maybe deserved some money didn't get some money. Long story short, instead of paying employees with actual money — money that could be used to buy things — Skype granted them the option to buy the company's stocks. Stock options, if you will. Most startups have more potential than actual money. Stock options allow them to convert some of that future potential, the potential that they will eventually go public or be bought for hundreds of millions of dollars, for work today.  The company essentially gets to pay a worker less today and in exchange that worker gets the option to own a small fraction of the company, which they can in turn possibly sell for lots and lots of money, and become rich and buy mansions on warm, sandy beaches. Stock options are an essential part of the startup ecosystem. High-tech, growth-oriented startups don't exist in a vacuum. They depend on a veritable ecosystem or environment of other actors, institutions, norms and rule that help new firms get founded and existing firms grow. When one part of that ecosystem gets out of balance, it can destroy an entire eco-system.

What appears to have happened at Skype is that buried deep, deep, deep within the employees' contracts was a clause allowing the company to buy back those stocks, on demand, at their original price. Just before Microsoft finished acquiring the company, the company activated this clause, stripping many of their employees of millions of dollars worth of stock options. The details are not entirely clear at the moment, but it appears that this strategy was orchestrated by Silver Lake, a private equity company that had bought 65% of Skype for 1.9 billion dollars back in 2009 and has now just sold for 9 billion. This strategy means that Silver Lake's investment wasn't diluted by employee's stock options.

When these buyouts happen, employees maybe make a lot of money. Maybe some of these people quit their jobs to start their own company, financed through their stock earnings (Paypal got its start this way, so did Skype). Or maybe they use that money to become angel investors, investing in very early stage companies to help them get ready for growth. This helps perpetuate an entrepreneurial ecosystem. Successes produce more successes; the lucky ones become mentors and investors for new generations of entrepreneurs. When something like this whole Skype thing occur, it damages the ecosystem. I would imagine that things like this would make it much harder for small firms to attract the best people with stock options. There will be fewer angels and fewer entrepreneurial mentors.

Something very similar happened in Ottawa back in 2001 (Note, this discussion is coming from a chapter that I wrote in a forthcoming volume of Advances in the Study of Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Economic Development, so you know, run down to your local library and camp out there till it comes out). Ottawa of course used to be the center of Canada's tech boom. Not only did large firms proposer there, but so too did smaller, entrepreneurial ones. Their growth was fed by the presence of a well-oiled network of entrepreneurial angels. Angel investors financed the early growth of the firm, and venture capitalists (some from Ottawa, even more from outside Ottawa) came in to catalyze their growth even further.

When the dot com crisis happened, a lot of these small, venture financed firms nose-dived in a hurry. Many venture capitalists quickly engineered the fire sale of these companies, and thanks to the structure of the deal they kept most of the money. The original entrepreneurs and the early stage angel investors either lost money or at the very best broke even. This has devastated Ottawa's entrepreneurial ecosystem and a decade later it still has yet to recover. Angels either lost money or their investments are still tied up in stalling companies. Entrepreneurs who were expecting a a big payout to either help them start a new firm or invest in others came away with nothing.

Here's what one angel investor in Ottawa told me:

 

The angel community in town, the word I could use to describe it is tired. There’s a lot of angels that made lots of investments over the last 10 or 15 years, not a lot of it is paid back yet. A lot of those investments still look really good but they’re still investments, not returns. So there’s a lot of people waiting on the sidelines now saying ‘I’ve put a lot of money into this and I’m going to wait until I get some return before I jump back into the pool.’ (Interview O125)

Three things happened in Ottawa. One, current angels lost their money and pulled back on future investments. Two, a new generation of angels were effectively nipped in the bud and never really developed. Three, and most importantly, the new generation of entrepreneurs lost trust in venture capitalists. I can't even count how many times I heard the phrase "vulture capitalist." They refuse to even consider talking to venture capitalists. In turn, this slows their growth substantially and reduces the chances that they'll be acquired, which in turn means that even fewer of them will be able to act as angels and investors for future entrepreneurs.

All of this is to say that entrepreneurial ecosystems are very fragile. Acts like using an obscure clause to claw back stock options at one company can reverberate for years. Now do I think that this one act will destroy the amazing ecosystem that is the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial scene? No. But I do think that for the next few years, employees will be less willing to accept stock options and demand more pay. This hurts the growth potential of very small firms, and may start a cycle the turns into something bigger.

The takeaway from this is that it's not just about the entrepreneurs. When talking about how to foster entrepreneurship and firm formation on a region, we also need to think about the employees who will sacrifice pay and stability to work at a startup. We need to think about the angels who provide them with early stage capital, and the venture capitalists who help them take it to the next level. These actors and more act in a complex economic and social network. This network is far easier to disrupt than it is to build.

 

 

The future of RIM and the future of Waterloo

Research in Motion, the maker of the venerable BlackBerry cellphone has had a hard time as of late. Another disappointing quarter has left their shares at a 5 year low, and speculation about their future has already started, with rumors of buyouts and declines swirling around. This is a continuation of their annus horribilis which has already seen the lack-luster launch of the Playbook which was supposed to revitalize the company's cutting-edge image, but didn't. But this post isn't about RIM's market opportunities or new strategies. I don't have a clue about this; In full disclosure I'm writing this on a Mac Mini, with an iPad (*sigh, iPad 1) and iPhone 4 charging next to me. What I do want to think about is what a declining RIM means for the future of entrepreneurship the Kitchener-Waterloo region. Startup North got the ball rolling on this topic yesterday. They argue that while RIM has pumped maybe 100 million dollars into Canada's entrepreneurial economy over the past several years, through acquisitions and and venture investments, Google has done the same amount in only the past 12 months. Furthermore, most of RIM's acquisitions have been located in Toronto, not Waterloo. In terms of pure dollars and connections with startups, RIM has very little happening in Waterloo. Though its headquarters is located there at it employs thousands of developers and engineers locally, to a lot of entrepreneurs' it's essentially a blackhole that sucks up all the talent. There are very few, if any, spinoffs from RIM. One of the local startups that is in anyway associated with the BlackBerry ecosystem is Kik, who made a pretty damn popular instant messaging system for the Blackberry. But, they're now they're being sued by RIM. While Kik now supports iOS and Android, they've left the BlackBerry behind. If anyone knows about other spinoffs from RIM, I'm all ears.

(I should add that my PhD dissertation focuses on the local social and cultural factors that underpin high-tech entrepreneurship in Canada. As part of this research, I've interviewed dozens of entrepreneurs in Waterloo, with a specific focus on their relationship to RIM)

I wouldn't say that RIM is hurting local startups. Many of the entrepreneurs I've talked to have said that they often see RIM senior execs at Communitech (the local economic development group), and that they give out advice and are generally nice people. I mean, this is Canada after all. RIM also helps startups indirectly as well. A lot of the entrepreneurs I talked to — from bleeding edge microchip designers to graphic designers working out of their basements — said that just being associated with RIM by being located in the same city is an advantage. I would argue that much more than the University of Waterloo, RIM has been the main reason why Waterloo is now synonymous with high-tech.

If RIM continues its decline and becomes a mere Nokia or Motorola, Waterloo's image will be tarnished. If RIM can no longer take on the cream of UW's co-op crop, Waterloo's imagine will decline and fewer of the world's best computer scientists will come to the city. Other startups like SandVine and Desire2Learn show that Waterloo is more than just RIMtowne, and the continued presence of Google and Microsoft in the region prove that the city is and will be one of the hubs of raw computing talent in Canada, if not the world. But, a declining RIM and the continued rise of startups in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal might sap talent from the region.

However, back over at StartupNorth, there was the thought that maybe RIM's coming layoffs will be a boon for entrepreneurship in the region. This is what happened in Ottawa. As Nortel died its slow death, the laid-off engineers and developers started their own businesses, creating a renaissance of entrepreneurship in the city. That's true, but it's also not. It's true that even as Nortel slid into nothingness, entrepreneurship grew in the city (see figure)

But, the bulk of these firms were little IT consulting shops set up not by entrepreneurial world killers who wanted to take on Cisco, but by older engineers who didn't want to move. They had houses with mortgages (and this was not a fantastic time for selling your house), they had kids in schools and husbands and wives with local jobs. Leaving Ottawa just wasn't an option for some people. And Ottawa is a pretty great place to be an IT consultant. Some of them went straight back to consulting or contracting for Nortel, and over time many of them starting working with the federal government.

But many of these firms are very successful, they're not the kinds of firms that lend themselves to regional economic development or growth. They don't make products, so their revenues only grow with their billable hours. They don't hire many people, and they're not great platforms for new entrepreneurs to hone their skills. Rather, by and large they are lifestyle firms that generate a good income for the owner, and maybe a few other employees. Not that there's anything wrong with this, only that this isn't entrepreneurship in the way that many people imagine. Afterall, these weren't died in the wool entrepreneurs, these were workers at a very large company who were suddenly laid off. They want a nice comfortable life, they're not necessarily willing do 18 hour days or 100 hour weeks any more.

Waterloo is less of a great place to be an IT consultant. Sure, if RIM lays off people, it'll need to bring on contractors, but there are few other big players in the region that need large amounts of IT outsourcing done. Certainly, there's no federal government presence like in Ottawa. There is just not a whole lot of room in the local economy for a lot of small IT shops.

So, what will happen if RIM continues its decline, leading to large layoffs of highly skilled developers and engineers? The majority will find other jobs locally, no doubt of that. Google, Microsoft and the rest would love to scoop up that talent for their mobile divisions. Some of the younger and unattached ones will leave for greener pastures: Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, San Francisco or Boston. This will be the biggest loss for the community. But those who do stay will may create their own startups. But the vast, vast majority of these will be lifestyle firms with very little growth potential. I will be very surprised if out of, say, a 500-person layoff from RIM, if even one truly innovative startup will result.